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Animal Spirits

Talk Your Book: Teucrium's Sal Gilbertie on Commodities & Crypto

31 min episode · 2 min read
·
Sal Gilbertie

Episode

31 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Sales & Revenue, Product & Tech Trends

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Oil price stability: Producers prefer stable prices around $50-75 per barrel over volatile spikes because planning infrastructure investments like pipelines and ports requires predictable revenue projections that banks can underwrite with confidence, making operations more sustainable long-term.
  • Agricultural entry points: Consider buying corn near $4 per bushel, soybeans below $10, and wheat under $5—these historical breakeven production costs represent optimal entry points. Grains outperformed during seven of seven recent S&P 500 corrections exceeding 10 percent.
  • Commodity holding strategy: Agricultural commodities lack positive expected returns unlike gold or Bitcoin, requiring strategic timing rather than buy-and-hold approaches. Purchase when prices flatline at historical lows, then wait for weather-driven supply disruptions to generate 15-50 percent returns.
  • Leveraged ETF mechanics: Double-leveraged crypto ETFs like XXRP reset daily and experience volatility decay—making 100 percent then losing 100 percent leaves investors at zero. These products serve day traders exclusively, not buy-and-hold investors, despite widespread misuse.

What It Covers

Sal Gilbertie explains commodity market dynamics, why stable oil prices benefit producers more than spikes, agricultural commodity trading strategies at breakeven levels, and Teucrium's expansion into leveraged crypto ETFs targeting day traders.

Key Questions Answered

  • Oil price stability: Producers prefer stable prices around $50-75 per barrel over volatile spikes because planning infrastructure investments like pipelines and ports requires predictable revenue projections that banks can underwrite with confidence, making operations more sustainable long-term.
  • Agricultural entry points: Consider buying corn near $4 per bushel, soybeans below $10, and wheat under $5—these historical breakeven production costs represent optimal entry points. Grains outperformed during seven of seven recent S&P 500 corrections exceeding 10 percent.
  • Commodity holding strategy: Agricultural commodities lack positive expected returns unlike gold or Bitcoin, requiring strategic timing rather than buy-and-hold approaches. Purchase when prices flatline at historical lows, then wait for weather-driven supply disruptions to generate 15-50 percent returns.
  • Leveraged ETF mechanics: Double-leveraged crypto ETFs like XXRP reset daily and experience volatility decay—making 100 percent then losing 100 percent leaves investors at zero. These products serve day traders exclusively, not buy-and-hold investors, despite widespread misuse.

Notable Moment

Gilbertie reveals China has not yet adopted horizontal drilling technology that made the United States an oil export powerhouse a decade ago, suggesting China could become the world's largest oil producer within five years by implementing existing shale extraction methods.

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Episode Transcript

Today's animal spirits talk your book is brought to you by Toucrium. Go to toucrium.com to learn more about all of their different ETFs from crops to crypto and white label funds. It's toucrium.com to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, admittedly, the commodities market is not something that I understand. Like, I I don't have a good feel for it. Dude, supply, demand, curves, mud. But that that's the that is the thing thing is supply and demand. But I've been watching Landman lately. Okay? And Landman does not constitute reality, but they're talking about how there's this huge oil energy boom. And I'm looking at it and thinking Woah. Woah. No spoilers. I'm not up so behind. Okay. I I'm still catching up too. But oil has been 60 ish dollars a barrel for a while now. It's not like oil is remember people said it's gonna go to $200 a barrel. And you think, well, wouldn't that have to be the case that oil would have to go really high for this to make sense for people to be making hand over fist? But we talked to Sal Gilberte from Tukrian today, and he said, no. No. No. That's not what you want. You don't want, like, crazy volatile spiking prices. You want relatively stable prices. And I think that's what we've had because, obviously, that gives you it makes it easier for you to plan. It makes it easy. Even if you're making not as much money as you would at higher prices, it's the planning. Right? And you don't have these huge crashes and like we had in in COVID and these huge spikes that we had in 2022. The flat in commodities or the not going very not going anywhere is probably better for your business planning. That's right, Ben. And we get into That's what Billy Bob would tell you. That's right. So, anyway, we've talked to Sal a number of times over the years about agriculture. Today, we're gonna talk about crypto and how that's like a commodity as well. So here's our talk with Sal Gilberty who is the founder and CEO of Toucrium. Sal, welcome back to the show. Thanks. Great to be here always with you guys. Alright. Commodities. I feel like people only wanna talk about them when they're spiking. And, otherwise, it's sort of, like, out of sight, out of mind. Like, for example, crude oil is about to break. Well, maybe it will, maybe it won't. But it is sitting on right at multiyear lows, and my god, this chart does not look pretty. This looks like it's looks like it's gonna go a lot lower, but who …

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  • XXRPBy guest

    by Teucrium

    Double-leveraged crypto ETFs like XXRP reset daily and experience volatility decay—making 100 percent then losing 100 percent leaves investors at zero.

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